Estimating the Size of the Commercial Real Estate Market in The U.S.
Estimating the Size of the Commercial Real Estate Market in the U.S.
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The approximated overall dollar value of industrial realty was $20.7 trillion since 2021: Q2.
Highlights
This research note sums up a research study by Nareit mostly using data from CoStar that estimates the total dollar value of industrial genuine estate was $20.7 trillion as of 2021: Q2. This study updates and builds upon the method for Nareit's previous price quotes of the commercial realty market.
Table 1 summarizes the estimates by residential or commercial property sector. The overall estimate is $20.7 trillion. Measurement concerns with the underlying information recommend that the actual worth of total CRE may differ from this point quote. An assessment of these sources of unpredictability recommends that the actual worth is highly most likely to fall within a series of $18 - $22 trillion. These estimates are based upon a bottom-up method utilizing the best offered data for each residential or commercial property sector.
We also estimate overall REIT holdings of business property utilizing information from Capital IQ Pro. For the 2nd quarter of 2021, REITs make up an approximated 9.4% of the overall CRE market. REITs tend to concentrate on institutional-quality residential or commercial properties that are more recent and of greater quality than numerous other industrial residential or commercial properties that are owned by private financiers. We estimate the total worth of these "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties to be approximately 50% of the total CRE market which the REIT share of "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties is 18.7% for the second quarter of 2021.
Chart 1 shows a time series of the REIT share of the total CRE market and the REIT share of the REIT-like CRE market.
Methodology
To approximate the size of the business real estate market, we utilize a multi-step approach based upon the best offered information for each residential or commercial property sector.
- We start by recognizing and approximating the variety of units (for multifamily) and total square video footage (for other residential or commercial property sectors) by residential or commercial property sector and residential or commercial property quality type for the biggest 200 markets in the U.S. This procedure utilized CoStar's data export function covering the Office, Retail, Multifamily, and Industrial residential or commercial property sectors that provided total square video footage and units along with the average price per square foot (for workplace, retail, and industrial) or per system (for multifamily).
- The details on square footage and average price by residential or commercial property type (for retail: General Retail, Mall, Neighborhood Center, and Strip Center; for commercial: Flex, Logistics, and Specialized), CoStar quality ranking (1-2 Star, 3 Star, 4-5 Star), and groups of metro locations (entrance cities, next biggest 48 metro locations, and all other metro areas) enable more analysis of the geographic distribution of industrial realty across the nation and estimates of institutional-grade commercial realty versus all other. These price quotes in turn are useful for determining the REIT share of business property by residential or commercial property sector.
- To approximate worths for the Healthcare and Hospitality sectors where we do not have disaggregated totals available from CoStar, we use the values from an aggregate analysis of commercial realty market size performed by CoStar, updated using aggregate growth rate presumptions.
- To approximate the value of Data Centers and Towers, we estimate the overall worth of REITs in these residential or commercial property sectors and gross as much as cover the whole market using presumptions on the REIT portion of these sectors (50% for Data Centers and 75% for Towers). Recent Nareit-sponsored research on cell tower REITs highlights their significance in the CRE market. The determined value for Data Centers is deducted from the Industrial overall, as it is consisted of in the CoStar estimate of overall square video footage of Industrial residential or commercial properties.
- We estimate the REIT share of the industrial realty market by utilizing data from S&P Capital IQ Pro on the Real Estate Value of REITs. We include up the total Realty Value for the most current quarter and divide by the overall worth of the CRE market.
- To establish a time series for REIT share, we utilize observed information on the total size of the CRE market because 2012. For many years before 2012, we assume an 8% growth in total worth for each year returning to 1995. For the years 2007 - 2011, we follow various conventions to represent the effects of the Great Financial Crisis. In 2007, we approximate that the overall CRE worth decreased the very same percent as REITs. This percent is the exact same for both elements in 2008. In 2009 - 2011, both the total market and the REIT worths increase to 1/4, 1/2, and 3/4 of the method to the 2012 value, respectively.
- In addition to estimating the REIT share of the overall market, we also estimate the REIT share of 'REIT-like residential or commercial properties.' REITs do not own numerous older, lower quality, or smaller residential or commercial properties that are owned by personal investors. Therefore, we estimate that half of the overall market is "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties and we divided the REIT value by that number to approximate the REIT share of "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties.
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